I feel kind of embarrassed that most of the sites I’m responsible for are still not accessible via IPv6. I have been hoping that my hosting provider (Godaddy) would give me the opportunity to upgrade my service to IPv6 so I can continue to host my site with them. This does not appear to happen any time soon so I will have to move all my sites to another server.
One of my sites (+the nameserver it is using) is already IPv6 enabled. If you are interested in Swedish outboard engines and some other odd stuff, you can now go to www.lagerholm.com over Ipv6. More to follow…
APNIC has historically allocated new addresses from IANA when their pool size has been about 2 x /8. Their pool recently got below that number so we can assume that we will see an allocation of 2 x /8 from IANA to APNIC soon.
All the RIR’s pool will be pretty well filled after this allocation. The sum of all the RIR’s and the various pool will be about 21.5 x /8. This is a historically high number. I don’t expect to see any allocations for a while until ARIN and APNIC would have to refill their pool in the November/December time frame.
After that I would expect RIPE and APNIC to allocate in February of 2011 and then finally AfriNIC snatching the last block from the IANA pool somewhere March/April of next year.
I first heard about the idea of tainted /8 blocks from Tony Hain from Cisco a few years ago (thanks for sharing your ideas). The fear was that some IPv4 addresses were unusable because some equipment vendors, documents and networks would use addresses from those blocks “illegally”.
One of the most tainted block could be the 1/8 block (Come on, who hasn’t used 188.8.131.52 or 184.108.40.206 in an example in documentation or as an IPv4 for a quick hack). One excellent description of the problem and a study on how tainted those blocks could be can be found in Mark Blachets blog.
Thankfully the problem does not appear to be as severe as initially anticipated. APNIC got the 1/8 block allocated from IANA in January 2010 and started to delegated large chunks of the block in May of 2010 as described here
There are reports about some bogus traffic to a few of the addresses within the 1/8 block. What has happened is that APNIC reserved and trashed a few /24 from the 1/8 block.. Those /24 will probably never be used on the Internet. These blocks in question are 220.127.116.11/24, 18.104.22.168/24, 22.214.171.124/24, 126.96.36.199/24, 188.8.131.52/24 that totaling about 1000 addresses. A whois lookup points them to researchers at APNIC. Most of the rest of the block is now allocated to various APNIC members.
RIPE allocated the 2/8 block from IANA in September 2009. Most of the addresses are used up, for example 184.108.40.206 is delegated to France Telecom. There are no signs of small delegations that are thrown away because of dirtyness in the 2/8 block.
The conclusion that can be drawn is that we do not have to be overly concerned about tainted IPv4 addresses. The problem appears to only affect very specific subnets and IPv4 addresses and not whole /8. I would assume that the same will be seen in other potentially tainted blocks such as 100/8.
I made some changes to my prediction model to better reflect the historical data on growth and allocations. The following changes are made to my prediction:
- I have lowered the RIPE’s growth model from an exponential model to a linear model. I previously assumed a growth in allocations from Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Those subregions do not appear to allocate IPv4 addresses in the pace I anticipated. Perhaps because of the global recession we have experienced lately.
- I have increased the AfriNIC growth model from a linear model to an exponential model. The assignment pace from AfriNIC to the ISPs in the region has been greater than I expected.
- I have lowered the LACNIC growth model from an exponential model to a linear model. The assignment pace from LACNIC has not been accelerating as much as I anticipated, perhaps because of the global recession.
- I have changed the thresholds for when the RIRs allocates. Previously I followed the IANA policy strict and used a dynamic threshold model for when the RIRs would allocate. The new model uses a fixed threshold model instead. This appears to better reflect when the allocations are being made.
The result of this new model is that we got about another month of time before the IPv4 addresses are depleted from the IANA pool.
It might take a few days before all the graphs, reports and data catches up with this new prediction model.
People have asked me to provide a graph, similar to Hustons figure 30
Here is one http://www.ipv4depletion.com/endgame.png.
The main differences are are that I’m not providing any historical data. Everything you see is the predictions moving forward. This makes it possible for me to zoom in more.What you are seeing is a stretched out version of the bottom right corner of Huston’s graph, from the vertical red line to the end of the graph.
My graph ends when the first RIR gets depleted. The graphs will be updated daily automatically.
Here is an explanation if you are curios why the predicted depletion date was moved to an earlier date all of the sudden. APNIC made some very large allocations yesterday.
- China Mobile allocated a quarter of the 223/8 netblock. This equals about 4 million addresses and the addresses were in the range 220.127.116.11 – 18.104.22.168.
- China Telecom allocated about 750 thousand addresses to the Shanxi province in the ranges 22.214.171.124 – 126.96.36.199 and 188.8.131.52 – 184.108.40.206. Additionally they allocated about half a million addresses to the MeiMengGu province in the range 220.127.116.11 – 18.104.22.168 a few days ago.
- NTTDoCoMo in Japan allocated the range 22.214.171.124 – 126.96.36.199 or about ½ million addresses.