Today IANA announced that RIPE allocated 5/8 and 37/8 and that ARIN allocated 23/8 and100/8
This leaves only 2 x /8 in the IANA pool that APNIC most likely will pick up in the beginning of next year.
That’s it, no more IPv4 addresses, party is over, go home. We had 40 six-packs of beer when the party started, now there are only 2 bottles left…
Both T-mobile and Orange in the United Kingdom got one /11 or 2 million addresses each by the end of this week. This moved the IANA depletion date even earlier.
UPDATE: A reader told me that Orange UK actually purchased T-mobiles UK operation a while ago.
Written by Stephan Lagerholm (c) 2010 /S
As you can see in my predictions, it is pretty clear that the IANA pool of IPv4 addresses will be depleted in next quarter. The figure below illustrates the endgame in details.
But then what? An interesting exercise is to look at the deficit of IPv4 addresses each region will encounter as time goes by. Assume that half of the deficit will be controlled by using multiple layers of NAT and that the other half of the deficit would be IPv6 only hosts. How big would then the IPv6 only Internet be at different future times?
If you rely on the Internet to do business you cannot ignore the growing population of IPv6 only hosts that aren’t able to communicate with you. You must start to deploy IPv6 even if you have plenty of IPv4 addresses available. Here is a likely scenario:
1 year from now – APNIC will run their IPv4 pool dry. After that, APNIC must rely on IPv6 for any network growth.
2 years from now – RIPE will get depleted. By that time there are already a deficit of around 8 x /8 worth of addresses in APNIC. Around 2% of the internet would be IPv6 only.
2.5 years from now – ARIN will run out of IPv4 addresses. The total deficit from RIPE and APNIC will now be around 16 x /8 with. Around 4% of the Internet will be IPv6 only.
4 to 5 years from now – Over 10% of the Internet will be IPv6 only.
Written by Stephan Lagerholm © 2010
The 45/8 block from Interop is no longer showing up as delegated in the ARIN statistics. This adds 1 block to the ARIN free pool and will push the estimated ARIN allocation to Feb next year.
All three large RIRs (ARIN, APNIC, RIPE) will ask for an additional two blocks each in February next year. This will deplete the IANA pool.
Ladies and Gentlemen, history in the making…
Today AfriNIC got the 105/8 block allocated from IANA. This is surprisingly early, I was expecting AfriNIC to request more space in April of next year. This is moving the IANA depletion date much earlier (February of next year instead of April).
ARIN will soon get two blocks from IANA too. I asked John Curran about it at the recent Gogo6live Ipv6 conference and he vaguely admitted that ARIN will request space soon. It wouldn’t surprise me if that would be this week.
This leaves us with 4 x /8 left. Most likely, two for APNIC and two for RIPE. APNIC has around 4 x /8 in its pool which should be sufficient for them until early February of next week. By that time they will only have around 2 x /8 left and they will refill with another 2 x /8. RIPE currently have 2.88 x /8 in their pool. RIPE is currently allocating in a quite slow pace and the 0.88 x /8 will most likely last until late February of next year. They will then have 2 x /8 in the pool and will be able to justify another allocation of 2 x /8. After that there will be no more IPv4 addresses in the central pool.
It is really time to start implementing IPv6…
ARIN announced a few days ago that the upper half of 50/8 now is delegated to Comcast. That is about 8 million addresses and is the largest delegation we have ever seen from a RIR.
It is unclear if this block will be used for customer equipment or just for internal devices. Comcast has previously announced that they are running out of the RFC1918 space and that they are using real IPv4 addresses for internal network devices.