Today's ARIN estimated depletion date:


Archive for January, 2011

2-Feb 2011 ????

01.26.11

Posted by ipv4depletion  |  38 Comments »

As everybody can see, my depletion countdown has been showing “today” for quite some time now. The reason is that APNIC’s pool is at a level where they normally would request and get 2 x /8 allocated from IANA. At this point in time, the IANA depletion date is defined by the discrete event when IANA decides to delegate these last 2 blocks to APNIC. However, APNIC and/or IANA are for some reason is waiting longer than expected to finalize this last delegation.

There has been a lot of discussion on the Internet and on this site about when the IANA depletion date will actually be. We know that it will be in the next couple of weeks but the exact details are unknown. Some theories are emerging:

Geoff Huston’s ipv4depletion site suddenly stopped moving and jumped from Jan-20 to Feb-2 a few days ago. His site has steadily predicted this date for a few days now, even when large delegations were made that normally would shift this date. Does he know something we don’t know?

A gentleman in UK claims to know the date but claims to be under NDA so that he can’t reveal it. Could it be the case that IANA is planning some kind of global event around the event and is recruiting experts from around the globe to participate in such global event?

This dude, told the whole world on twitter that he had inside information and that he knew that the IANA pool would be depleted this week. Well, that was last week so he was obviously wrong, but could this be an indication of the fact that APNIC actually already sent their request to IANA? Maybe IANA is holding this up?

This site is claiming that the IANA depletion would occur this week:
And that the last 5 blocks likely will be handed over to the RIRs during the ICANN meeting in San Francisco in March. Interesting theory with the meeting in San Francisco, I like it.

Please comment here if you have any other theory or know something that I don’t know. I will promise to protect any source in true wikileak spirit! You can always reach me at Stephan at Lagerholm dot com

Gogo6 Videos

01.25.11

Posted by ipv4depletion  |  No Comments »

The fine folks at Gogo6 just released videos from their IPv6 conference in November of last year. Here are a few with me in them:

Me and Tony Hain discussing IPv4 depletion models (did I say April there?)

Me discussing Secure64 products

Panel discussion with Me, Elise Gerich ICANN, John Curran ARIN, Tony Hain Cisco, David Ward Juniper

You can find the rest of the videos from the event here

New delegations in APNIC

01.13.11

Posted by ipv4depletion  |  60 Comments »

Some recent IPv4 delegations from APNIC have moved the anticipated IANA allocation date closer. APNIC’s pool is down to 2.39 x /8. This indicates that we are now 1-2 weeks away from the big IANA depletion event. The following large networks got allocated in recent days: 36.192.0.0/11 and 101.144.0.0/12 to China TieTong Telecommunications and 101.244.0.0/14 to Beijing Time-vision Telecommunication

Written by Stephan Lagerholm (C) 2011.

Looking back at 2010

01.09.11

Posted by ipv4depletion  |  11 Comments »

The year 2010 was perhaps the last year we will see without significant progress around IPv6. Here are some of (IMHO) the top 10 IPv6 related stories in 2010. Did I miss any significant story? Please comment.

1. Google turns on IPv6 for Youtube
Google turns on Ipv6 for YouTube at 28 January of 2010. Service providers around the globe are seeing a significant increase in Ipv6 traffic.

2. Comcast start IPv6 trials
Comcast announces end user Ipv6 trials in January of 2010. Over 5,000 customers sign up for the trials.
http://www.comcast6.net/

3. DNS64/NAT64 becomes an alternative to Dual Stack
T-mobile US and a few wireless providers in Slovenia explains to the world that they are seriously considering Ipv6 only handsets using 6 to 4 gateways to reach the IPv4 Internet. The technique used is DNS64/NAT64 and T-mobile announces an open trial in September that people with the Ipv6 capable handsets can sign up for.
http://groups.google.com/group/tmoipv6beta

4. The realization of IPv6 brokenness
In May of 2010 news are released around the fact that adding AAAA to your DNS might break some clients. The problem appears to be because of an old versions of the Opera Broswer and old versions of MacOS doesn’t handle dual stack correctly. This becomes a major discussion topic after Tore Anderson reports his findings and gets slashdotted.
http://apple.slashdot.org/story/10/05/04/2029255/Mac-OS-X-Problem-Puts-Up-a-Block-To-IPv6

5. Increased interest in the “when” question
People are realizing that it is not a matter of IF if they need to deploy IPv6, it is a matter of WHEN. So what’s the target date? People, Experts and bloggers around the web are speculating and have different theories. However, the question when IANA depletion date will be exhausted suddenly becomes much clearer when AfriNIC unexpectedly allocates 1 x /8 in November. After that, more or less everybody agrees on an end of January / Beginning of February 2011 timeframe.

6. The new IPv6 OMB mandate for the federal US
In September, the Office of Management and Budget is releasing a new IPv6 mandate. This mandate is somewhat more direct in terms of what needs to be done compared to the old IPv6 mandate that in reality never got implemented. The new timeframe is September 2012 for external services and September 2014 for internal networks. Not that very aggressive but better than nothing.
http://www.cio.gov/documents/IPv6MemoFINAL.pdf

7. Lack of IPv6 strategies from some large organizations
2010 is the year when it becomes clear that some service and content providers are falling seriously behind in IPv6 preparation and rollout. It becomes clear that they will have a hard time catching up, risking revenue and customers.
I will not mention any of the laggards here, instead I want to thank organizations that are adopting and promoting IPv6: Comcast, Verizon Wireless, T-mobile, Softlayer, Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Netflix, ARIN, Cisco, Juniper and Gogo6 are some of them.

8. Increased IPv4 allocation rate
The allocation rate from IANA to the RIRs exploded in 2011 resulting in a record 19 x /8 blocks allocated to the RIRs. Statistically you can see that the RIRs are also experiencing an increased demand for IPv4 addresses from their members, culminating in October when Comcast gets a /9 allocated.
http://www.ipv4depletion.com/?p=493

9. Return of the Interop Ipv4 network
Most of the legacy Interop show network with 16 million IPv4 addresses are returned to ARIN in November. But don’t draw any foolish conclusions; this is most likely the last of the legacy /8 to be recovered.
https://www.arin.net/announcements/2010/20101020.html

10. The IPv6 Task force summits
People interested in IPv6 are organizing themselves in different IPv6 Task Forces around the globe. The local task forces in the US are organizing several well attended events:
www.txv6tf.org , www.rmv6tf.org , www.cav6tf.org

Written by Stephan Lagerholm © 2011

Set aside policies

01.07.11

Posted by ipv4depletion  |  4 Comments »

All RIRs have implemented or are discussing some changes to their IPv4 allocation policy that will kick in when they receive their last allocation from IANA (should be any day now).
The changes can be divided into two categories. The first category restricts how many IPv4 addresses each individual account holder can get. The second category sets a number of IPv4 addresses aside for a future unforeseen use. Below is an overview over all the policies. Make sure to take those policies into account when you estimate how many IPv4 addresses will be able to get before all IPv4 pools are depleted.

APNIC

ID: prop-062-v002
Status: Implemented

Restriction: Each APNIC account holder will that meets the criteria for an IPv4 allocation will be eligible to request and receive a single allocation no larger than the minimum allocation size.
Set aside: A /16 will be held in reserve for future uses, as yet unforeseen.

LACNIC

ID: LAC-2008-04
Status: Implemented.

Restriction: LACNIC must reserve a last /12 under a special criteria. However LACNIC notes on the website that they forecast that the reserved space may be incremented to /10 by new allocation policies approved by LACNIC PDP.

set aside: No set aside policy exists or are under discussion.

ARIN

ID: 2008-5, 2009-8 (Prop-123 and Prop-124)
Status: Discussion Implemented

Restriction: ARIN NRPM section 4.2.4.4. “Subscriber Members After One Year” was implemented in early 2010 as a result of draft policy 2009-8: Equitable IPv4 Run-Out. It limits the request of IPv4 addresses to a three month supply after IANA IPv4 pool depletion.

ARIN-prop-124 is a proposal to clarify that the 3 month restriction only applies to new requests, not requests that are already in queue at the time of IANA IPv4 pool depletion. Unfortunately in my opinion, that proposal was abandoned by the AC at their December meeting and is not currently under discussion.

Set aside:

ARIN NRPM section 4.10 “Dedicated IPv4 block to facilitate IPv6 Deployment” was implemented in 2008 as a result of draft policy 2008-5: Dedicated IPv4 block to facilitate IPv6 Deployment. It reserves a /10 of IPv4 space for transitional technologies specifically.

The new proposal puts an additional /20 aside. “Upon receipt of the last /8 that the IANA will allocate to ARIN per the Global Policy for the Allocation of the Remaining IPv4 Address Space, ARIN will place a contiguous /20 in reserve for Critical Infrastructure.”

Interesting to note here is that both these still are proposals. The next ARIN meeting will be in April. The global IANA pool will already be depleted at that time. Thanks Chris Grundemann for correcting me on the ARIN policy.

AfriNIC

ID: AFPUB-2010-v4-005
Status: Discussion

Restriction: During this phase, allocation/assignment of address space will continue as in the Current phase (/24 for a EU and /22 for a LIR) but the maximum will change from /10 to /13.
Allocations and assignments will be made from the /8 pool until we reach a /11. At this point the Transition to IPv6 phase will kick in.
During this phase a minimum allocation/assignment size will be /27. the maximum allocation/assignment will be /22.
If any LIR or End User requesting IPv4 address space during the Exhaustion Phase does not already have IPv6 address space, then AfriNIC shall allocate or assign an IPv6 address block in compliance with the IPv6 allocation or assignment policies in effect at the time.
The current allocation and assignment period of 12 months shall be changed to 8 months. This will help to ensure that LIRs request only for resources they need in the short to medium term, and promote fairness in the equitable distribution of the last IPv4 address pool.
Set aside: A /12 IPv4 address block will be in reserve out of the Last /8.

RIPE

Status: Concluding (will likely soon be implemented)
ID: 2010-02

Restriction: On application for IPv4 resources LIRs will receive IPv4 addresses according to the following:
a. LIRs may only receive one allocation from this /8. The size of the allocation made under this policy will be exactly one /22.
b. LIRs receive only one /22, even if their needs justify a larger allocation.
c. LIRs may apply for and receive this allocation once they meet the criteria to receive IPv4 address space according to the allocation policy in effect in the RIPE NCC service region at the time of application.
d. Allocations will only be made to LIRs if they have already received an IPv6 allocation from an upstream LIR or the RIPE NCC.
Set aside: A /16 will be held in reserve for some future uses