A few recent allocations in the APNIC region to Pakistan and South Korea has pushed the global burn rate of IPv4 addresses over 3 x /8 per month. With only about 16 blocks of free IPv4 left in all pools combined, it is not hard realize that IPv6 is needed sooner rather than later.
Last time the burn rate was this high was in May 1995 when Ford, US defense agency DISA and Prudential all got one /8 allocated. At that point, IPv4 addresses was of course handed out in a very wasteful way.
Most of the IPv4 allocations are being made in the APNIC region. I must confess that the tool doesn’t do a good job of modeling the allocation spike that we are seeing in APNIC currently. A more realistic prediction is probably that APNIC will be depleted in May 2011. Some readers have suggested April. I do not believe in April, because it will be hard for members that recently got large address space allocated to justify yet another allocation prior to the depletion (A rush to concert tickets will be most severe the first couple of hours/days, then the rate will slow down even if tickets still are available)
Another interesting thing is that we clearly can see that the ARIN policy that caps the maximum allocation to a 3 month demand has kicked in. In fact, the ARIN burn rate is quite high, but there are no allocations larger than 250,000 IPv4 addresses the last 30 days.
As many readers have noticed, today Microsoft bought 600k addresses from whatever is left of the bankrupt Nortel. One article about this can be found here
The interesting thing is that ARIN still have addresses available so they could potentially have requested them from ARIN instead. What is the motivation for Microsoft to buy these old legacy addresses? I can think of some reasons:
1. If these are legacy addresses, then they don’t have to pay any annual fee to ARIN for them. What would be the ROI for this?
2. They don’ t necessary have to use them in the ARIN region. They could use them in the APNIC region instead for example.
3. They don’t know what they are doing.
4. They didn’t really do it. It is just a rumor.
Please comment here if you have any additional insight or ideas on why Microsoft did this.
I’m quoted in this network world article about Verizon and how many IPv4 addresses they might have left.
Ripe is currently test announcing the following blocks: 126.96.36.199/10, 188.8.131.52/8, 184.108.40.206/10, 220.127.116.11/10. Those blocks show up as delegated in the statistics from RIPE, but they are not really used because they will be delegated the conventional way once the test completes. They falsely moved the RIPE depletion date earlier with 4 months.
These blocks have now been removed in the depletion calculations.
APNIC announced that the 18.104.22.168/9 block of 8 million Ipv4 addresses will be delegated to NTT communications in Japan. This delegation used up around 10% of the remaining IPv4 addresses in the APNIC region.
The latest calculations are now estimating that APNIC will run out of IPv4 addresses in August.