Today's ARIN estimated depletion date:


Texas IPv6 Task Force Summit

2011-07-23

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Join us for the 3rd Texas IPv6 Task Force Summit in Austin, TX on September 14-15 2011.

Registration is now open

If you are new to IPv6 then I suggest that you also sign up for the lab. Everything is provided for free. I hope to see you there.

Stephan Lagerholm, Director Txv6TF.

Predicting ARIN’s depletion date

2011-06-19

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© 2011 – Stephan Lagerholm (ipv4depletion.com)

At Nanog 52 John Curran, the president and CEO of ARIN held a presentation about IPv4 transfers. One of the slides stated that ARIN expects to run out of IPv4 addresses in early 2012. John also verbally hinted that it might actually be earlier than that. The presentation can be found here.

This prediction is very far away from my own prediction that ARIN will continue to have IPv4 addresses into April of 2014. I believe that John’s prediction is overly aggressive in terms of the depletion date. I’m looking at the statistics and facts that I have and I can really not see how ARIN will be depleted by the end of this years. Let’s look into this in more details. What I believe speaks for a later depletion date is that:

  • ARIN has recently implemented a change in the policy so that you now only can request a supply of IPv4 to cover for the next 3 months of demand as oppose to 12 months of demand.
  • ARIN currently holds the largest pool of free IPv4 addresses. The pool is about 6  x /8 or close to 100 million addresses.
  • The current burn rate for ARIN is 0.1 x /8 pr about 1.6 million addresses per month. A simple linear extrapolation suggests depletion date 50+ months from now. That’s way into 2015!
  • The consumption in the ARIN region has been very steady and linear lately. I don’t see any indication of that changing.

It is still however, good ideas to start implement IPv6 if you are in the ARIN region. What first and foremost should motivate you to do so is that APNIC and RIPE will soon be out of IPv4 addresses. There will soon be clients and servers in that region that you are unable to communicate with.

World IPv6 day is finally here

2011-06-08

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The world IPv6 day is finally here. Several large organizations are participating. Google is now responding with an IPv6 address for www.google.com when you ask their DNS forcing clients to try IPv6 prior to IPv4.

Some statistics about IPv6 traffic can be found here: For the Internet Exchange in Amsterdam and for Akamai
It is hard to tell right now if there is a significant increase in IPv6 traffic around the globe.

If you know any other sites that provides real time statistics, let me know.

Predicting RIPE’s depletion date

2011-04-16

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This week APNIC delegated their last IPv4 address the conventional way. The remaining pool of IPv4 addresses in the APNIC region will be delegated in small chunks of 1024 addresses. There is in other words nothing left other than breadcrumbs in this region.

In contradiction to my very exact estimate of the IANA depletion date, my tool and the mathematics I have been using failed to predict the APNIC depletion date with good accuracy. The algorithms that I have been using were not very good at predicting how an over 300% increase in demand over the last 2 months affected the depletion date. I would have been better off just using a linear algorithm with the last 2 months of demand as my input.

I must say that I was very surprised how quickly the APNIC pool got depleted. It appears that a “rush to the bank” happened once the members in the region realized that they might not get any additional IPv4 addresses. As the graph below indicates, the APNIC average burn rate went from slightly below 400,000 IPv4 addresses per day prior to the IANA exhaustion to almost 1.2 million IPv4 addresses per day after the IANA pool was depleted.

 

RIPE next

The current burn rates and the sizes of the RIR pools suggest that RIPE will be the next registrar to run out of free IPv4 addresses. RIPE have had a quite modest burn rate of about 150,000 addresses per day over the last year. The peak in the graph below in November is from when both Orange and T-mobile in the UK allocated 2 million addresses each (T-mobile and Orange actually merged their UK operations, so it is somewhat strange that they both could get 2 million addresses at the same day, but that is another story).

 

A linear extrapolation based on the RIPE burn rate and pool size suggests that RIPE would run out of IPv4 addresses in May of next year. There is currently no indication of a “rush to the bank” in the RIPE region. The current burn rate is actually slower than the yearly average.  

Modeling RIPE based on APNIC

We know that the demand in APNIC increased substantially when it was apparent that they would be the first RIR to be depleted. If RIPE is experiencing the same type of rush, when would then RIPE get depleted? Let’s do the math:

RIPE has 4.27 x /8 addresses left in their pool. This equals about 71,650,000 addresses.

The one year average burn rate in the RIPE region has been around 150,000 addresses per day. The rush experienced in APNIC increased the demand by 3.08 times. A similar increase in demand would get RIPE to a burn rate of 460,000 addresses per day. With such burn rate, RIPE would only be able to honor delegation requests for another 156 days.

Based on the calculations above, the RIPE depletion date could be as early as 19th September 2011.

The wildcard in this calculation is of course if “RIR shopping” will become popular. The fear is that members of other regions will start allocating addresses in regions with remaining IPv4 addresses. If this will become a reality, we could see an even earlier RIPE depletion date.

APNIC runs out of IPv4

2011-04-15

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APNIC has announced that they are running out of IPv4 addresses. They have less than 1 x /8 left. This trigger a very strict delegation policy and IPv4 addresses will not be available the conventional way any longer in the region.

This means that we soon will see IPv6 only hosts in Asia Pacific. If you are doing business online and intend to provide service to those clients you will have to have IPv6 implemented. This is the final warning that you will have to implement IPv6 regardless of what region you are located in.

burnrate > 3 x /8 per month

2011-03-31

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A few recent allocations in the APNIC region to Pakistan and South Korea has pushed the global burn rate of IPv4 addresses over 3 x /8 per month. With only about 16 blocks of free IPv4 left in all pools combined, it is not hard realize that IPv6 is needed sooner rather than later.

Last time the burn rate was this high was in May 1995 when Ford, US defense agency DISA and Prudential all got one /8 allocated. At that point, IPv4 addresses was of course handed out in a very wasteful way.

Most of the IPv4 allocations are being made in the APNIC region. I must confess that the tool doesn’t do a good job of modeling the allocation spike that we are seeing in APNIC currently. A more realistic prediction is probably that APNIC will be depleted in May 2011. Some readers have suggested April. I do not believe in April, because it will be hard for members that recently got large address space allocated to justify yet another allocation prior to the depletion (A rush to concert tickets will be most severe the first couple of hours/days, then the rate will slow down even if tickets still are available)

Another interesting thing is that we clearly can see that the ARIN policy that caps the maximum allocation to a 3 month demand has kicked in. In fact, the ARIN burn rate is quite high, but there are no allocations larger than 250,000 IPv4 addresses the last 30 days.

MSFT buying addresses from Nortel?

2011-03-24

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As many readers have noticed, today Microsoft bought 600k addresses from whatever is left of the bankrupt Nortel. One article about this can be found here

The interesting thing is that ARIN still have addresses available so they could potentially have requested them from ARIN instead. What is the motivation for Microsoft to buy these old legacy addresses? I can think of some reasons:

1. If these are legacy addresses, then they don’t have to pay any annual fee to ARIN for them. What would be the ROI for this?
2. They don’ t necessary have to use them in the ARIN region. They could use them in the APNIC region instead for example.
3. They don’t know what they are doing.
4. They didn’t really do it. It is just a rumor.

Please comment here if you have any additional insight or ideas on why Microsoft did this.

Network world article

2011-03-13

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I’m quoted in this network world article about Verizon and how many IPv4 addresses they might have left.

Network World

RIPE test announcing networks

2011-03-05

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Ripe is currently test announcing the following blocks: 185.0.0.0/10, 176.0.0.0/8, 37.0.0.0/10, 5.0.0.0/10. Those blocks show up as delegated in the statistics from RIPE, but they are not really used because they will be delegated the conventional way once the test completes. They falsely moved the RIPE depletion date earlier with 4 months.

These blocks have now been removed in the depletion calculations.

Mega delegation to NTT Japan

2011-03-01

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APNIC announced that the 153.128.0.0/9 block of 8 million Ipv4 addresses will be delegated to NTT communications in Japan. This delegation used up around 10% of the remaining IPv4 addresses in the APNIC region.

The latest calculations are now estimating that APNIC will run out of IPv4 addresses in August.